St. Louis City 1-4 Vancouver Whitecaps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.18
Over Pick
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.24
2-3
38%
1.87
4-5
27%
3.0
6+
11%
9.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.69
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.68
X/2
8%
7.12
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
15%
4.8
2/X
7%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
+0.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.5pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Vancouver Whitecaps EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.53/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.22
+34% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.5 Crosses 18.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Louis City
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Vancouver Whitecaps
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.08 xG 1.45
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
269 Passes 411
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 4-3 HT 1-2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
05.10.2023 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0 HT 0-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
28.05.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-1 HT 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
1-4
AWAY Vancouver Whitecaps
1.30 xG 2.73
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 5
341 Passes 412
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 29
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vancouver Whitecaps swept aside St. Louis City 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was St. Louis City at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, St. Louis City had 47% of the ball to Vancouver Whitecaps's 53%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.30 to 2.73.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vancouver Whitecaps led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Louis City and 2.67 for Vancouver Whitecaps.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

St. Louis City 1-4 Vancouver Whitecaps in the USA - Major League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 47%, draw 23%, Vancouver Whitecaps 30%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Louis City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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