York United 3-2 Valour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 14 Jul 2025

📅14/07/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Valour EU Bookmakers 27%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.38/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/2.31
+5% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 79%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.8 Crosses 16.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valour
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.56 xG 1.28
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
433 Passes 339
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.05.2025 Valour Valour 2-1 HT 0-1 York United York United KAPL
14.09.2024 York United York United 1-1 HT 1-1 Valour Valour KAPL
12.08.2024 Valour Valour 0-1 HT 0-0 York United York United KAPL
28.06.2024 Valour Valour 1-0 HT 1-0 York United York United CAPL
11.05.2024 York United York United 3-1 HT 0-1 Valour Valour CAPL
09.09.2023 York United York United 1-3 HT 0-1 Valour Valour CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York United
3-2
AWAY Valour
2.34 xG 0.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
349 Passes 464
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 8
14 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH York United vs Valour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York United edged past Valour 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had York United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, York United had 44% of the ball to Valour's 56%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 2.34 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold York United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valour led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for York United and 1.33 for Valour.

What was the final score of York United vs Valour?

York United 3-2 Valour in the Kanada - Premier League on 14/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York United vs Valour?

Before kick-off our model rated a York United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split York United 46%, draw 28%, Valour 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (York United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (York United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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