Toluca 1-2 Colorado Rapids — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 14 Aug 2024

Toluca
1-2 HT 0-1
Colorado Rapids
📅14/08/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Concacaf League Cup – 2024

Toluca vs Colorado Rapids Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
33%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.06
6+ Goals
14%
9.73
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.06 — our 28% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.8
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
13%
6.05
X/2
14%
5.63
X/X
12%
4.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
2/2
13%
3.42
2/X
6%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
36%
+8.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-5.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.1pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Colorado Rapids — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Colorado Rapids EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.78/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/2.13
+36% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 80%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
21.0 Crosses 21.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Toluca vs Colorado Rapids Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Colorado Rapids
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
The Meetings
01.08.2023 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 1-4 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca CONLK

Toluca 1-2 Colorado Rapids — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
1-2
AWAY Colorado Rapids
1.75 xG 2.06
66% Ball Possession 34%
22 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
450 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
40 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Colorado Rapids
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colorado Rapids nicked a narrow win over Toluca 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Toluca had 66% of the ball to Colorado Rapids's 34%, shots finished 22-4, expected goals 1.75 to 2.06.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Colorado Rapids?

Toluca 1-2 Colorado Rapids in the Concacaf League Cup on 14/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Colorado Rapids?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Toluca 44%, draw 23%, Colorado Rapids 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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