Southend United 1-3 Sutton United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.91
Over 2.5
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.45
6+ Goals
8%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 32% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.58
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.65
X/1
11%
4.36
X/2
10%
7.62
X/X
13%
4.88
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
14%
5.63
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southend United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sutton United EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.84/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.99
+15% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +55%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southend United
1-3
AWAY Sutton United
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Southend United vs Sutton United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United saw off Southend United 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Sutton United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southend United had 59% of the ball to Sutton United's 41%, shots finished 14-8.

What was the final score of Southend United vs Sutton United?

Southend United 1-3 Sutton United in the England - National League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southend United vs Sutton United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southend United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Southend United 40%, draw 29%, Sutton United 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Southend United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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