Aberdeen 2-1 Motherwell — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.58
6+ Goals
11%
14.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 29% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.2
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
14%
3.94
X/2
7%
9.6
X/X
10%
4.93
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
11%
7.62
2/X
9%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.4pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Motherwell EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.68/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.30
+3% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
332 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 67%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.9 Crosses 20.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberdeen
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Motherwell
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.70 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 266
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
16.03.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 0-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
14.02.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-3 HT 2-3 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
01.11.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-4 HT 0-2 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
04.02.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
22.10.2022 Motherwell Motherwell 1-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberdeen
2-1
AWAY Motherwell
1.72 xG 1.67
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
397 Passes 232
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Aberdeen vs Motherwell
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen squeezed past Motherwell 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Aberdeen had 59% of the ball to Motherwell's 41%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.72 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Aberdeen and 1.17 for Motherwell.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Motherwell?

Aberdeen 2-1 Motherwell in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs Motherwell?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 51%, draw 25%, Motherwell 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
14 Sep 2024
17:00 Ross County vs Dundee FC Analysis →
17:00 St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Analysis →
17:00 Hibernian vs St. Johnstone Analysis →
17:00 Celtic vs Hearts Analysis →