Cremonese 1-1 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 14 Sep 2024

Cremonese
1-1 HT 1-0
Spezia
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Cremonese vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.52
X/2
13%
7.17
X/X
15%
4.45
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
12%
5.38
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cremonese v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cremonese EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.44/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.47
-9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
22.8 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9

Cremonese vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cremonese
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Spezia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.56 xG 1.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
268 Passes 410
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
05.11.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 3-0 HT 2-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
06.05.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 2-0 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
16.10.2022 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 2-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTA
24.07.2020 Cremonese Cremonese 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
11.02.2020 Spezia Spezia 3-2 HT 0-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTB

Cremonese 1-1 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cremonese
1-1
AWAY Spezia
0.57 xG 1.29
67% Ball Possession 33%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
495 Passes 201
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cremonese vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cremonese and Spezia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cremonese had 67% of the ball to Spezia's 33%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.57 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cremonese had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cremonese and 0.83 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Cremonese vs Spezia?

Cremonese 1-1 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cremonese vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cremonese win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cremonese 40%, draw 30%, Spezia 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cremonese), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cremonese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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