Alianza Petrolera 3-0 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.20/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.20
+6% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
267 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.5 Crosses 13.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Millonarios
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.68 xG 1.35
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
188 Passes 429
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Millonarios Millonarios 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
29.07.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
01.02.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
06.10.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-2 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
29.09.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOLK
30.07.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
3-0
AWAY Millonarios
2.30 xG 0.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
322 Passes 295
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 7
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera swept aside Millonarios 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Alianza Petrolera made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 52% of the ball to Millonarios's 48%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.30 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.33 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Millonarios?

Alianza Petrolera 3-0 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 37%, draw 27%, Millonarios 35%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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