Once Caldas 1-0 Envigado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.0pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Envigado EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.22/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.35
+12% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
297 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 79%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.9
19.4 Crosses 12.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Envigado
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.00 xG 0.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
288 Passes 249
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.05.2025 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
21.09.2024 Envigado Envigado 0-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
10.03.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
16.09.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
01.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
21.09.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Envigado
0.78 xG 0.47
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
451 Passes 222
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Envigado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Envigado 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 65% of the ball to Envigado's 35%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.78 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Once Caldas and 0.33 for Envigado.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Envigado?

Once Caldas 1-0 Envigado in the Colombia - Primera on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Envigado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 49%, draw 28%, Envigado 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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