Hereford FC 1-0 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -18%
1.75/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.45
+26% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hereford FC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Chorley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Chorley Chorley 1-1 HT 1-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
09.03.2024 Hereford FC Hereford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
28.10.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
07.03.2023 Chorley Chorley 2-0 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
06.12.2022 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
29.01.2022 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 0-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hereford FC
1-0
AWAY Chorley
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hereford FC vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hereford FC nicked a narrow win over Chorley 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hereford FC as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hereford FC had 44% of the ball to Chorley's 56%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hereford FC and 1.50 for Chorley.

What was the final score of Hereford FC vs Chorley?

Hereford FC 1-0 Chorley in the England - Conference on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hereford FC vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hereford FC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hereford FC 41%, draw 28%, Chorley 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hereford FC), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hereford FC) ✓ Under 2.5
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