Carrarese 3-2 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
27%
2.83
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.56
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.43 — our 36% vs market 33.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.58
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
14%
5.34
X/2
9%
6.4
X/X
15%
3.6
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
14%
4.77
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.7pp
27%
Draw
32%
-4.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrarese EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 33%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.41/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.12
+0% / +114% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.5 Crosses 17.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carrarese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Salernitana
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.81 xG 3.16
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 5
372 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2024 Salernitana Salernitana 4-1 HT 2-1 Carrarese Carrarese İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carrarese
3-2
AWAY Salernitana
2.02 xG 1.23
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
203 Passes 335
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Carrarese vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carrarese nicked a narrow win over Salernitana 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Carrarese as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carrarese had 40% of the ball to Salernitana's 60%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 2.02 to 1.23.

What was the final score of Carrarese vs Salernitana?

Carrarese 3-2 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie B on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrarese vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrarese win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Carrarese 42%, draw 27%, Salernitana 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carrarese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carrarese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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