Modena 1-1 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.32
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
10%
6.92
X/2
12%
4.88
X/X
12%
3.99
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.08
2/X
11%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.08/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.23
+12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
267 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 76%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
19.2 Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Spezia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 0.91
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
388 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
25.02.2024 Modena Modena 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
26.12.2023 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
12.03.2016 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
27.10.2015 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
21.02.2015 Spezia Spezia 3-2 HT 1-1 Modena Modena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
1-1
AWAY Spezia
0.74 xG 1.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
256 Passes 272
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Modena vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena and Spezia shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Modena had 49% of the ball to Spezia's 51%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.74 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Modena and 1.33 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Modena vs Spezia?

Modena 1-1 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Modena 32%, draw 28%, Spezia 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Spezia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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