Caldas 0-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-8.2pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.3pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 30%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +10%
1.14/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.09
-12% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
18.08.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
27.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
28.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 4-3 HT 0-2 Caldas Caldas POR3
02.10.2022 Caldas Caldas 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
10.10.2020 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
0-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Caldas 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Sporting Covilha found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Caldas had 58% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 42%, shots finished 15-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Caldas and 1.50 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Caldas 0-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Caldas 38%, draw 31%, Sporting Covilha 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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