Caldas 1-2 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.49/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.13
+15% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
27.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
28.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 4-3 HT 0-2 Caldas Caldas POR3
02.10.2022 Caldas Caldas 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
10.10.2020 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-2
AWAY Sporting Covilha
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Caldas 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caldas had 53% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 47%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Caldas and 1.40 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Caldas 1-2 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Caldas 41%, draw 28%, Sporting Covilha 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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