Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-0 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.4pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 27%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -8%
1.66/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.57
+26% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Varzim
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
16.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
07.04.2024 Varzim Varzim 4-3 HT 3-3 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
11.02.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
08.12.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
25.08.2023 Varzim Varzim 3-0 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
2-0
AWAY Varzim
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa beat Varzim 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 39% of the ball to Varzim's 61%, shots finished 14-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Varzim led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 1.50 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Varzim?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-0 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 41%, draw 32%, Varzim 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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