Nacional de Football 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 15 Feb 2026

📅15/02/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
58%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.8
Over
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
36%
4-5
25%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Nacional de Football win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
2.14/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.77
+27% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 212 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
08.09.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
07.09.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
14.06.2025 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-2 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
17.03.2025 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
09.11.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 0-2 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
04.05.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 4-2 HT 2-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-1
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football and Racing Club Montevideo shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Nacional de Football carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 57% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 43%, shots finished 10-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.50 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Nacional de Football 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 58%, draw 23%, Racing Club Montevideo 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Over 2.5
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URU More Uruguay - Premier League
15 Feb 2026
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