Scarborough Athletic 1-0 Hereford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
15.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.6pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Scarborough Athletic EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +15%
1.64/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.34
+10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Scarborough Athletic
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Hereford FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2024 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
06.01.2024 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 3-0 HT 1-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
28.11.2023 Hereford FC Hereford FC 3-1 HT 1-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
07.01.2023 Hereford FC Hereford FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
13.08.2022 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 1-0 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Scarborough Athletic
1-0
AWAY Hereford FC
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Scarborough Athletic vs Hereford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Scarborough Athletic squeezed past Hereford FC 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Scarborough Athletic as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Scarborough Athletic had 47% of the ball to Hereford FC's 53%, shots finished 17-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Hereford FC led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Scarborough Athletic and 1.20 for Hereford FC.

What was the final score of Scarborough Athletic vs Hereford FC?

Scarborough Athletic 1-0 Hereford FC in the England - Conference on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Scarborough Athletic vs Hereford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Scarborough Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Scarborough Athletic 44%, draw 25%, Hereford FC 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Scarborough Athletic) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Scarborough Athletic) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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