Notts County 1-2 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.12
6+ Goals
9%
10.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.75
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
13%
4.81
X/2
11%
7.24
X/X
9%
5.02
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
17%
5.17
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.65
Value flag · 2/X at 13.65 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
1.57/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.33
-1% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
26.3 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Chesterfield
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.70 xG 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
444 Passes 344
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 40
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.10.2024 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
13.05.2023 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
11.02.2023 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-2 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İBSL
20.08.2022 Notts County Notts County 2-2 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
26.03.2022 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
01.03.2022 Chesterfield Chesterfield 3-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-2
AWAY Chesterfield
1.56 xG 1.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
371 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 23
33 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield nicked a narrow win over Notts County 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Chesterfield made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Notts County had 57% of the ball to Chesterfield's 43%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.56 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Notts County and 1.83 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Chesterfield?

Notts County 1-2 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Notts County 40%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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