Swindon Town 3-3 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 15 Mar 2025

Swindon Town
3-3 HT 1-1
Cheltenham Town
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.91
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 33% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
10%
7.63
X/X
17%
4.61
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
15%
5.96
2/X
5%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-11% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.37/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/0.97
+2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
381 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 67%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
22.6 Crosses 19.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
274 Passes 234
68% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.10.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-3 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
19.11.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town FAK
09.11.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town FAK
24.08.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-2 HT 2-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
27.04.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 3-2 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.12.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2

Swindon Town 3-3 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
3-3
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.69 xG 0.26
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
256 Passes 101
69% Pass Accuracy 51%
29 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town and Cheltenham Town couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Swindon Town had 65% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 35%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.69 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Swindon Town and 1.50 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Town?

Swindon Town 3-3 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 42%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town 30%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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