Plymouth Argyle 2-3 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 15 Mar 2025

Plymouth Argyle
2-3 HT 1-2
Derby County
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Plymouth Argyle vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
28%
2.83
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.41
Over 2.5
39%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
1.95
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
6.31
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.1
X/1
12%
5.76
X/2
15%
4.97
X/X
19%
3.31
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.85
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.8pp
29%
Draw
32%
-3.4pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
67%
-6.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
33%
+6.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.1pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Plymouth Argyle v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -24%
0.93/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.15
+29% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
255 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 73%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
18.3 Crosses 18.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Plymouth Argyle vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.82 xG 1.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
355 Passes 261
75% Pass Accuracy 67%
17 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.11.2024 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
07.03.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
03.09.2022 Derby County Derby County 2-3 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
26.01.2010 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
22.08.2009 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
07.02.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Plymouth Argyle 2-3 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2-3
AWAY Derby County
0.96 xG 0.93
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
186 Passes 118
62% Pass Accuracy 53%
20 Box Touches 27
23 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County squeezed past Plymouth Argyle 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Derby County made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 58% of the ball to Derby County's 42%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.96 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.50 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Derby County?

Plymouth Argyle 2-3 Derby County in the England - Championship on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 37%, draw 29%, Derby County 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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