Milan II 1-1 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
18.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 33% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera EU Bookmakers 31%
-51% / -51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
0.24/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.09
-82% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan II
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Pontedera
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan II Milan II İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan II
1-1
AWAY Pontedera
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan II vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan II and Pontedera shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Milan II had 55% of the ball to Pontedera's 45%, shots finished 13-9.

What was the final score of Milan II vs Pontedera?

Milan II 1-1 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan II vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Milan II 38%, draw 28%, Pontedera 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Milan II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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