Verl 1-4 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 31% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.0
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
11%
5.01
X/2
11%
6.85
X/X
17%
4.62
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
12%
4.88
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.0pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.60/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.62
-2% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
14.8 Crosses 24.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
420 Passes 357
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
17.03.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-1 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
14.10.2023 Verl Verl 2-2 HT 2-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
29.04.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-1 HT 2-0 Verl Verl AL3
05.11.2022 Verl Verl 2-1 HT 1-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
17.03.2021 Verl Verl 1-1 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
1-4
AWAY Ingolstadt
75% Ball Possession 25%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
577 Passes 124
85% Pass Accuracy 55%
23 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Verl vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt cruised past Verl 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Verl had 75% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 25%, shots finished 17-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Verl had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Verl and 1.33 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Verl vs Ingolstadt?

Verl 1-4 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Verl 43%, draw 28%, Ingolstadt 29%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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