Tokyo Verdy 2-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
5.35
6+ Goals
10%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.61
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
14%
4.91
X/2
8%
5.95
X/X
11%
3.6
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
18%
4.82
2/X
9%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-5.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+5.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -20%
1.38/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.29
+18% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
19.6 Crosses 17.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.00 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
306 Passes 314
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
22.06.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
2-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.39 xG 0.92
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
285 Passes 300
71% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy nicked a narrow win over Nagoya Grampus 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Tokyo Verdy found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 48% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 52%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.39 to 0.92 — on chances, Nagoya Grampus could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 0.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus?

Tokyo Verdy 2-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 38%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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