Machida Zelvia 1-0 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
5.5
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.65
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
11%
7.02
X/X
8%
3.61
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
13%
6.12
2/X
9%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.5pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.2pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
1.31/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.25
+6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 77%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
22.3 Crosses 15.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.32 xG 0.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
248 Passes 396
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.09.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
04.09.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 5-0 HT 2-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JLK
25.08.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
01.06.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-3 HT 1-2 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
02.08.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JPK
23.10.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-0
AWAY Albirex Niigata
2.08 xG 0.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
319 Passes 432
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 7
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia squeezed past Albirex Niigata 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 44% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 56%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 2.08 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Machida Zelvia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.83 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata?

Machida Zelvia 1-0 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 46%, draw 24%, Albirex Niigata 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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