FK Orenburg 1-0 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
4.88
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
12%
5.02
X/2
11%
5.79
X/X
18%
3.94
2/1
10%
32.0
2/2
17%
4.48
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.8pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.6pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.66/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.88
+1% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -78% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
27.3 Crosses 15.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fakel
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.35 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
290 Passes 142
73% Pass Accuracy 59%
22 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 Fakel Fakel 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
31.03.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.10.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 0-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
21.09.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUK
29.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
22.04.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-3 HT 1-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-0
AWAY Fakel
1.11 xG 1.22
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
293 Passes 107
74% Pass Accuracy 55%
33 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg squeezed past Fakel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 31% / 32% — and on the day FK Orenburg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 67% of the ball to Fakel's 33%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.11 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FK Orenburg and 0.67 for Fakel.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Fakel?

FK Orenburg 1-0 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 36%, draw 31%, Fakel 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Orenburg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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