Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.49
No
52%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
21%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
7.77
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.81 — our 28% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.98
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
5%
11.8
X/1
19%
5.47
X/2
8%
6.98
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1
8%
22.55
2/2
17%
4.35
2/X
7%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
63%
-14.9pp
52%
BTTS No
37%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.52/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.44
+23% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
16.6 Crosses 16.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
346 Passes 307
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
05.11.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
27.07.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.03.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
21.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
28.05.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2-1
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.16 xG 2.09
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
279 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow nicked a narrow win over Dinamo Moscow 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 47% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 53%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 1.16 to 2.09 — on chances, Dinamo Moscow could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.50 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow?

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 43%, draw 23%, Dinamo Moscow 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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