Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-2 Trofense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Trofense EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
1.47/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.02
+13% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Trofense
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2026 Trofense Trofense 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
28.09.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-2 HT 0-2 Trofense Trofense POR3
19.04.2015 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-0 HT 1-0 Trofense Trofense POR2
15.11.2014 Trofense Trofense 1-5 HT 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR2
19.07.2014 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 3-1 HT 2-1 Trofense Trofense HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
1-2
AWAY Trofense
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Trofense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trofense edged past Vitoria Guimaraes II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes II at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes II had 62% of the ball to Trofense's 38%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes II had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes II and 0.80 for Trofense.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Trofense?

Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-2 Trofense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Trofense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes II 44%, draw 27%, Trofense 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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