Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Maldonado v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Defensor Sporting
URU
1-1
HT 0-1
Deportivo Maldonado
URU
0-0
HT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
URU
Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Maldonado edged past Defensor Sporting 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Maldonado found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Deportivo Maldonado had 59% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 41%, shots finished 15-7.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.17 for Defensor Sporting.
What was the final score of Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Maldonado win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Maldonado 38%, draw 27%, Defensor Sporting 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Maldonado), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.