PAOK 4-1 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.18
2-3 Goals
45%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 24% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.85
X/1
18%
4.2
X/2
8%
9.35
X/X
14%
5.49
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
15%
6.68
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +17%
1.64/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.27
+11% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
407 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
18.6 Crosses 10.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.47 xG 1.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
276 Passes 407
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-3 HT 1-2 PAOK PAOK YUN
21.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
14.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUK
28.01.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
01.10.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-2 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
03.05.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
4-1
AWAY Panathinaikos
2.33 xG 0.70
27% Ball Possession 73%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
157 Passes 593
65% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK ran out comfortable winners over Panathinaikos 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, PAOK had 27% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 73%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 2.33 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PAOK and 1.33 for Panathinaikos.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Panathinaikos?

PAOK 4-1 Panathinaikos in the Greece - Super League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split PAOK 48%, draw 25%, Panathinaikos 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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