Panathinaikos 2-3 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 31 Mar 2024

Panathinaikos
2-3 HT 1-2
PAOK
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2023/2024

Panathinaikos vs PAOK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.15
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.3
1/2
10%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
16%
5.02
X/2
14%
6.09
X/X
14%
4.45
2/1
5%
27.5
2/2
9%
4.33
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.5pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Panathinaikos v PAOK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.09/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.91
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +41%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
17.7 Crosses 13.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

Panathinaikos vs PAOK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PAOK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.40 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
348 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.02.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUK
14.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUK
28.01.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
01.10.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-2 HT 1-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
03.05.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
23.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-2 HT 0-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN

Panathinaikos 2-3 PAOK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
2-3
AWAY PAOK
1.23 xG 3.20
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 4
472 Passes 237
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
39 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK nicked a narrow win over Panathinaikos 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 33% — and on the day PAOK made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 63% of the ball to PAOK's 37%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.23 to 3.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PAOK's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.33 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Panathinaikos 2-3 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 40%, draw 26%, PAOK 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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