Motagua 1-0 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
36%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-8.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.33/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.11
-2% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Real Espana
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
27.04.2025 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
23.02.2025 Real Espana Real Espana 2-0 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
16.12.2024 Motagua Motagua 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
13.12.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 0-2 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
07.10.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-4 HT 0-2 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.08.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 1-0 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua squeezed past Real Espana 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Motagua made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Motagua and 1.33 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Real Espana?

Motagua 1-0 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Motagua 37%, draw 28%, Real Espana 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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