Motagua 1-1 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.56/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.11
+4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
249 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Real Espana
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
23.02.2025 Real Espana Real Espana 2-0 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
16.12.2024 Motagua Motagua 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
13.12.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 0-2 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
07.10.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-4 HT 0-2 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.08.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 1-0 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
11.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua and Real Espana couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Motagua and 1.33 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Real Espana?

Motagua 1-1 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Motagua 43%, draw 30%, Real Espana 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motagua) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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