Motagua 1-0 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 16 Dec 2024

📅16/12/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
48%
-11.8pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.4pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -13%
1.60/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.21
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Real Espana
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
13.12.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 0-2 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
07.10.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-4 HT 0-2 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.08.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 1-0 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
11.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
28.01.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 3-1 HT 2-1 Motagua Motagua HON
29.10.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-1 HT 2-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua edged past Real Espana 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Motagua found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Motagua and 1.67 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Real Espana?

Motagua 1-0 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 16/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Motagua 37%, draw 32%, Real Espana 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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