Al Riyadh 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.63
6+ Goals
9%
6.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.95 — our 29% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.0pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Riyadh EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 57%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
0.92/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.11
-8% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
17.1 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Riyadh
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.14 xG 1.52
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
272 Passes 472
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.01.2025 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-1 HT 0-0 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
28.10.2024 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SAKK
03.04.2024 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
05.10.2023 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 2-2 HT 1-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Riyadh
1-3
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.33 xG 2.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
355 Passes 398
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
23 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 16
7 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shabab Riyadh saw off Al Riyadh 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Shabab Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Al Riyadh had 48% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 52%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.33 to 2.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Al Shabab Riyadh led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Al Riyadh and 1.75 for Al Shabab Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al Riyadh 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Shabab Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Al Riyadh 27%, draw 24%, Al Shabab Riyadh 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Shabab Riyadh), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Shabab Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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