Aubagne 3-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 15 May 2026

Aubagne
3-1 HT 1-0
Caen
📅15/05/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.23
Over 2.5
42%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
4.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
2.72
6+ Goals
7%
7.53
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 34% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.33
1/2
6%
22.25
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
8%
6.84
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
5.32
X/X
16%
5.41
2/1
4%
27.5
2/2
17%
2.94
2/X
7%
12.15
Value flag · X/2 at 5.32 — our 19% vs market 14.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
41%
+16.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
59%
-16.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.1pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aubagne EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.51/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.25
+35% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
378 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aubagne
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Caen
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
08.08.2025 Caen Caen 3-0 HT 1-0 Aubagne Aubagne FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aubagne
3-1
AWAY Caen
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aubagne vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aubagne got the better of Caen 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Caen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aubagne had 34% of the ball to Caen's 66%, shots finished 10-12.

What was the final score of Aubagne vs Caen?

Aubagne 3-1 Caen in the France - National League 1 on 15/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aubagne vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aubagne 30%, draw 29%, Caen 42%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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