Valenciennes 2-2 Chateauroux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 15 May 2026

📅15/05/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
47%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
26%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-1.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 53%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.80/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.88
-30% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valenciennes
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Chateauroux
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 1.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
382 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.08.2025 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-0 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR3
07.02.2025 Chateauroux Chateauroux 1-2 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR3
06.09.2024 Valenciennes Valenciennes 3-1 HT 1-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
23.01.2021 Chateauroux Chateauroux 3-3 HT 1-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
12.09.2020 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-0 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2
08.11.2019 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Chateauroux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valenciennes and Chateauroux couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chateauroux at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valenciennes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Valenciennes and 1.00 for Chateauroux.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Chateauroux?

Valenciennes 2-2 Chateauroux in the France - National League 1 on 15/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Chateauroux?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chateauroux win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 25%, draw 28%, Chateauroux 47%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chateauroux) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR3 More France - National League 1
15 May 2026
20:30 Aubagne vs Caen Analysis →
20:30 Quevilly vs Paris 13 Atletico Analysis →
20:30 FC Fleury 91 vs Rouen Analysis →
20:30 Sochaux vs Le Puy Analysis →
20:30 Concarneau vs Villefranche Analysis →
20:30 Dijon vs Orleans Analysis →