Concarneau 2-2 Villefranche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 15 May 2026

📅15/05/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
20%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
9.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 28% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.27
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
20%
4.44
X/2
10%
8.76
X/X
13%
5.43
2/1
9%
21.4
2/2
6%
6.49
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
20%
Away Win
23%
-3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Concarneau EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Villefranche EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.37/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.07
-17% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
434 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Concarneau
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Villefranche
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.08.2025 Villefranche Villefranche 0-0 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
21.03.2025 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
23.10.2024 Concarneau Concarneau 1-1 HT 0-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
24.03.2023 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 0-1 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
21.10.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 4-1 HT 3-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
07.02.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 2-0 HT 1-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Concarneau
2-2
AWAY Villefranche
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Concarneau vs Villefranche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Concarneau and Villefranche shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Concarneau at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Concarneau had 45% of the ball to Villefranche's 55%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Concarneau had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Concarneau and 0.67 for Villefranche.

What was the final score of Concarneau vs Villefranche?

Concarneau 2-2 Villefranche in the France - National League 1 on 15/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Concarneau vs Villefranche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Concarneau win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Concarneau 55%, draw 26%, Villefranche 20%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Concarneau), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Concarneau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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