Villefranche 1-1 Concarneau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.71
Over 2.5
53%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.71
2-3 Goals
44%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.86
6+ Goals
11%
18.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.51
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
10%
5.24
X/2
17%
6.03
X/X
14%
4.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
2/2
13%
4.36
2/X
5%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.2pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
55%
-7.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
45%
+7.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villefranche EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Concarneau EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.17/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.68
-11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
432 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villefranche
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Concarneau
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2024 Concarneau Concarneau 1-1 HT 0-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
24.03.2023 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 0-1 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
21.10.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 4-1 HT 3-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
07.02.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 2-0 HT 1-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
27.08.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
03.04.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 1-0 HT 0-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villefranche
1-1
AWAY Concarneau
44% Ball Possession 56%
3 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Villefranche vs Concarneau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villefranche and Concarneau shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Villefranche had 44% of the ball to Concarneau's 56%, shots finished 3-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Concarneau led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Villefranche and 1.50 for Concarneau.

What was the final score of Villefranche vs Concarneau?

Villefranche 1-1 Concarneau in the France - National League 1 on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villefranche vs Concarneau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villefranche win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Villefranche 39%, draw 24%, Concarneau 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Villefranche), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Villefranche) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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