Sassuolo 1-0 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 15 Aug 2025

📅15/08/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
10.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
3.92
X/2
4%
11.85
X/X
9%
5.91
2/1
6%
21.5
2/2
7%
9.76
2/X
7%
18.1
Value flag · X/1 at 3.92 — our 25% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
63%
+1.7pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.2pp
16%
Away Win
16%
-0.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 20%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.82/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/2.32
-46% / +106% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -36%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
419 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 78%
48.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.5
20.7 Crosses 10.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Catanzaro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.02 xG 0.52
55% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
442 Passes 344
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2025 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-2 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
18.08.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
1-0
AWAY Catanzaro
2.03 xG 0.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
405 Passes 455
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
43 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo edged past Catanzaro 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sassuolo had 47% of the ball to Catanzaro's 53%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 2.03 to 0.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sassuolo's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Catanzaro led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sassuolo and 1.50 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Catanzaro?

Sassuolo 1-0 Catanzaro in the Italy - Cup on 15/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 64%, draw 20%, Catanzaro 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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