CSKA Moskova 1-0 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
16%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.86
Over
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.17
2-3
44%
1.76
4-5
21%
3.52
6+
8%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.17 — our 27% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.15
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
20%
4.13
X/2
5%
9.82
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1
14%
23.8
2/2
7%
8.1
2/X
5%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
CSKA Moskova win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
57%
+6.6pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.6pp
16%
Away Win
19%
-3.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.74/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.29
+33% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.6 Crosses 16.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Moskova
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Fakel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.08 xG 0.71
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
344 Passes 245
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
26.10.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
07.04.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 4-1 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
05.02.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 Fakel Fakel HAZ
11.11.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
04.10.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Moskova
1-0
AWAY Fakel
1.02 xG 0.53
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 3
363 Passes 256
19 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CSKA Moskova vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova squeezed past Fakel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CSKA Moskova as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.02 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CSKA Moskova and 0.50 for Fakel.

What was the final score of CSKA Moskova vs Fakel?

CSKA Moskova 1-0 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Moskova vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moskova 63%, draw 21%, Fakel 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moskova), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✓ BTTS No
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