Manisa FK 4-1 Van Spor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.9
Over
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
42%
4-5
20%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manisa FK EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Van Spor FK EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.71/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.72
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
21.5 Crosses 14.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manisa FK
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Van Spor FK
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.48 xG 1.40
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
222 Passes 383
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2026 Van Spor FK Van Spor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
07.12.2025 Manisa FK Manisa FK 2-1 HT 0-1 Van Spor FK Van Spor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manisa FK
4-1
AWAY Van Spor FK
2.38 xG 0.86
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
405 Passes 335
29 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manisa FK vs Van Spor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manisa FK swept aside Van Spor FK 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manisa FK as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.38 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Manisa FK had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Manisa FK and 0.50 for Van Spor FK.

What was the final score of Manisa FK vs Van Spor FK?

Manisa FK 4-1 Van Spor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manisa FK vs Van Spor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manisa FK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Manisa FK 50%, draw 24%, Van Spor FK 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manisa FK), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manisa FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
15 Aug 2026
19:00 Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor Analysis →
19:00 İstanbulspor vs Bodrum FK Analysis →
21:30 Bursaspor vs Iğdır FK Analysis →