Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.78
Over
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
42%
4-5
18%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.50/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.54
-3% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
17.8 Crosses 14.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.46 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
316 Passes 334
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2025 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
18.12.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
31.08.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-2 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
18.04.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 HT 2-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor TSL
22.10.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-3 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
21.06.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.45 xG 1.48
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
320 Passes 469
28 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük edged past Ümraniyespor 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.45 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.17 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?

Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 52%, draw 25%, Ümraniyespor 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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