Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-2 Yunnan Yukun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.57
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.58
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 33% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
19%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Yunnan Yukun EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +108%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
279 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
Crosses 19.9
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Yunnan Yukun
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
27.04.2024 Yunnan Yukun Yunnan Yukun 1-1 HT 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long
3-2
AWAY Yunnan Yukun
1.40 xG 2.17
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
161 Passes 339
66% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chongqing Tongliang Long squeezed past Yunnan Yukun 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Chongqing Tongliang Long found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chongqing Tongliang Long had 36% of the ball to Yunnan Yukun's 64%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.40 to 2.17 — on chances, Yunnan Yukun could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?

Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-2 Yunnan Yukun in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Yunnan Yukun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Yunnan Yukun win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chongqing Tongliang Long 34%, draw 26%, Yunnan Yukun 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Yunnan Yukun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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