CF Montreal 2-1 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.07
Over 2.5
59%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.14
6+ Goals
14%
10.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 27% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.17
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
24.85
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
12%
6.35
X/2
9%
5.23
X/X
10%
4.93
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
19%
3.16
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 12% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
40%
Away Win
40%
-0.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.6pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 45%
+11% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+16% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 83%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.9 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Montreal
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Charlotte
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.36 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
337 Passes 393
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
16.07.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
25.06.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
26.06.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 1-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
15.05.2022 Charlotte Charlotte 0-2 HT 0-1 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Montreal
2-1
AWAY Charlotte
1.34 xG 1.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
592 Passes 382
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 28
POST-MATCH CF Montreal vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal squeezed past Charlotte 2-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; CF Montreal found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CF Montreal had 59% of the ball to Charlotte's 41%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.34 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, CF Montreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for CF Montreal and 0.25 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of CF Montreal vs Charlotte?

CF Montreal 2-1 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Montreal vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated an Charlotte win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CF Montreal 35%, draw 25%, Charlotte 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Charlotte) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Charlotte) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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