Toronto FC 2-1 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.54
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
20%
4.43
X/2
7%
7.79
X/X
10%
5.06
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
14%
5.58
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.50/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.74
-1% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
15.2 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Austin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.21 xG 1.24
38% Ball Possession 62%
3 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 11
209 Passes 402
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 25
3 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 4
21.05.2023 Austin Austin 1-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
2-1
AWAY Austin
1.09 xG 3.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
373 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC nicked a narrow win over Austin 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toronto FC as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 49% of the ball to Austin's 51%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.09 to 3.54 — the balance of chances actually favoured Austin.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Austin?

Toronto FC 2-1 Austin in the USA - Major League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 47%, draw 24%, Austin 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toronto FC), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Over 2.5
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