Akwa United 1-1 Abia Warriors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.53
Draw
37%
3.64
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.51
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
26%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
61%
-15.2pp
37%
Draw
24%
+12.9pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+2.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+9.4pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Akwa United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Abia Warriors EU Bookmakers 17%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.94/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.97
+17% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -27%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
417 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Akwa United
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Abia Warriors
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
16.06.2024 Abia Warriors Abia Warriors 2-0 HT 1-0 Akwa United Akwa United NIJ
06.03.2022 Abia Warriors Abia Warriors 0-0 HT 0-0 Akwa United Akwa United NIJ
27.05.2021 Abia Warriors Abia Warriors 0-0 HT 0-0 Akwa United Akwa United NIJ
09.01.2021 Akwa United Akwa United 2-1 HT 1-1 Abia Warriors Abia Warriors NIJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Akwa United
1-1
AWAY Abia Warriors
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Akwa United vs Abia Warriors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Akwa United and Abia Warriors couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Akwa United at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Akwa United had 64% of the ball to Abia Warriors's 36%, shots finished 23-7.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Akwa United and 0.75 for Abia Warriors.

What was the final score of Akwa United vs Abia Warriors?

Akwa United 1-1 Abia Warriors in the Nigeria NPFL on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Akwa United vs Abia Warriors?

Before kick-off our model rated a Akwa United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Akwa United 46%, draw 37%, Abia Warriors 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Akwa United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Akwa United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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