Kuzey İrlanda 5-0 Bulgaristan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.48
Over
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.13
2-3
40%
1.82
4-5
20%
5.97
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
12%
16.2
X/1
18%
3.78
X/2
13%
8.66
X/X
8%
3.62
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
8%
7.97
2/X
8%
17.25
Value flag · 1/X at 16.2 — our 12% vs market 3.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kuzey İrlanda EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Bulgaristan EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% /
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
Crosses 15.4
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kuzey İrlanda
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Bulgaristan
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.71
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
358 Passes 228
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2024 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan 1-0 HT 1-0 Kuzey İrlanda Kuzey İrlanda AVUL
12.10.2021 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan 2-1 HT 0-1 Kuzey İrlanda Kuzey İrlanda DKE
31.03.2021 Kuzey İrlanda Kuzey İrlanda 0-0 HT 0-0 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan DKE
06.02.2008 Kuzey İrlanda Kuzey İrlanda 0-1 HT 0-1 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kuzey İrlanda
5-0
AWAY Bulgaristan
1.49 xG 1.22
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
249 Passes 367
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kuzey İrlanda vs Bulgaristan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kuzey İrlanda cruised past Bulgaristan 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kuzey İrlanda as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Kuzey İrlanda had 42% of the ball to Bulgaristan's 58%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 1.49 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bulgaristan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Kuzey İrlanda and 1.00 for Bulgaristan.

What was the final score of Kuzey İrlanda vs Bulgaristan?

Kuzey İrlanda 5-0 Bulgaristan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kuzey İrlanda vs Bulgaristan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kuzey İrlanda win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kuzey İrlanda 46%, draw 27%, Bulgaristan 26%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kuzey İrlanda), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kuzey İrlanda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUL More UEFA Uluslar League
15 Oct 2024
00:00 Belarus vs Lüksemburg Analysis →
21:45 İskoçya vs Portekiz Analysis →
21:45 Polonya vs Hırvatistan Analysis →
21:45 İsviçre vs Danimarka Analysis →
21:45 İspanya vs Sırbistan Analysis →
21:45 Kosova vs Güney Kıbrıs Analysis →