Polonya 3-3 Hırvatistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.74
Over Pick
54%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.88
2-3
37%
1.77
4-5
26%
4.04
6+
11%
18.9
Value flag · 4-5 at 4.04 — our 26% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.22
1/2
10%
29.5
1/X
10%
13.6
X/1
10%
5.78
X/2
7%
5.05
X/X
14%
4.27
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
21%
3.49
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Hırvatistan EU Bookmakers 42%
-47% / -47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.14/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.22
-100% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +96% / -26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 82%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
14.0 Crosses 16.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Hırvatistan
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.02 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
356 Passes 563
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 5
08.09.2024 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan 1-0 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya AVUL
16.06.2008 Polonya Polonya 0-1 HT 0-0 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan AVR
03.06.2006 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan 0-1 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya
3-3
AWAY Hırvatistan
1.27 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 3
358 Passes 413
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Polonya vs Hırvatistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya and Hırvatistan shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 2-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 30% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Polonya had 47% of the ball to Hırvatistan's 53%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.27 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hırvatistan led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Polonya and 0.67 for Hırvatistan.

What was the final score of Polonya vs Hırvatistan?

Polonya 3-3 Hırvatistan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya vs Hırvatistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hırvatistan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Polonya 33%, draw 30%, Hırvatistan 38%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hırvatistan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hırvatistan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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