Çin 2-1 Endonezya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.81
No
63%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.05
6+ Goals
8%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 35% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
51%
-14.1pp
63%
BTTS No
49%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Çin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Endonezya EU Bookmakers 36%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.36/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.30
-26% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +119% / -43%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
15.5 Crosses 6.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Çin
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Endonezya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
15.11.2013 Çin Çin 1-0 HT 1-0 Endonezya Endonezya ASKE
15.10.2013 Endonezya Endonezya 1-1 HT 0-1 Çin Çin ASKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Çin
2-1
AWAY Endonezya
0.88 xG 0.49
24% Ball Possession 76%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
98 Passes 506
51% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Box Touches 21
6 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Çin vs Endonezya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Çin nicked a narrow win over Endonezya 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Çin as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Çin had 24% of the ball to Endonezya's 76%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.88 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Çin had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Çin and 0.50 for Endonezya.

What was the final score of Çin vs Endonezya?

Çin 2-1 Endonezya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Çin vs Endonezya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Çin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Çin 42%, draw 26%, Endonezya 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Çin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Çin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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