İran 4-1 Katar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 15 Oct 2024

İran
4-1
Katar
📅15/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

İran vs Katar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.73
6+ Goals
7%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 31% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.0pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İran v Katar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İran EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Katar EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.36/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.76
-34% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / -16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
488 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.3 Crosses 17.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

İran vs Katar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İran
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Katar
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.39 xG 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
287 Passes 297
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.02.2024 İran İran 2-3 HT 1-2 Katar Katar ASK
17.10.2023 Katar Katar 0-4 HT 0-0 İran İran HAZ
23.03.2017 Katar Katar 0-1 HT 0-0 İran İran DKE
01.09.2016 İran İran 2-0 HT 0-0 Katar Katar DKE
15.01.2015 Katar Katar 0-1 HT 0-0 İran İran ASK
04.06.2013 Katar Katar 0-1 HT 0-0 İran İran DKE

İran 4-1 Katar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İran
4-1
AWAY Katar
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
301 Passes 354
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH İran vs Katar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İran cruised past Katar 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İran as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İran had 46% of the ball to Katar's 54%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, İran had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for İran and 0.50 for Katar.

What was the final score of İran vs Katar?

İran 4-1 Katar in the World Cup Qualifiers on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İran vs Katar?

Before kick-off our model rated a İran win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split İran 48%, draw 26%, Katar 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İran) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İran) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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