Montpellier 2-2 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Dec 2024

Montpellier
2-2 HT 1-2
Nice
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.86
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
24.3
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
16%
6.27
X/2
14%
5.52
X/X
10%
5.52
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
10%
3.24
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.3 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.9pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.62/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.19
+11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 83%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
22.6 Crosses 17.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Montpellier vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Nice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.34 xG 1.98
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 441
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.03.2024 Nice Nice 1-2 HT 1-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
07.02.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 1-4 HT 0-3 Nice Nice FRK
10.11.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1
22.07.2023 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier HAZ
27.05.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 2-3 HT 2-0 Nice Nice FR1
11.01.2023 Nice Nice 6-1 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Montpellier 2-2 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
2-2
AWAY Nice
1.97 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
317 Passes 326
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
39 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier and Nice couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Montpellier had 52% of the ball to Nice's 48%, shots finished 21-18, expected goals 1.97 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Montpellier and 2.50 for Nice.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Nice?

Montpellier 2-2 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 38%, draw 26%, Nice 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Montpellier) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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